cook partisan voting index by state

Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. Anyway, I like the idea of using both. Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "Even". The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. Lets hear your thoughts! Districts that are in line with the national average receive a score of EVEN. These average districts include Floridas 7th district, Californias 10th district, and Oregons 4th district. Its tempting to almost use 2000 no matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since the election was as close as it was. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. If a state or district performed within half a point of the nation in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. the closest we can figure how democratic a place is IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more value. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. [1] [2] But people are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama. Similarly, a district with a D+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Kerry than the national value of 48.8%. The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN. KISS. The PVI was developed by Charles Cook, editor and publisher of Cook, and scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Although the House's pro-GOP skew didn't budge much either way as a result of new maps, the number of competitive seats declined. I think well see funny things with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally good for us. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index was introduced as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of political districts and subdivisions using presidential and gubernatorial elections as a baseline. But you dont have to take my word for it this is how the Almanac of American Politics explains things: Cook Partisan Voting Index. The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. All Rights Reserved. I agree with the majority sentiment that it seems to make more sense to compare 2000 district performance with 2000 nationwide performance, not 2004 nationwide performance. NO. As younger people continue to move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to continue. The heavily Democratic parts of the country tend to be clustered in New England and along the West Coast. Cooks PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data. Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there should be some mention of it. Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Ebersold Chair in Constitutional Law, The Ohio State UniversityView posts , Dean and Sol & Lillian Goldman Professor of Law, Yale Law SchoolView posts , Alfred M. Rankin Professor of Law at Yale Law School (on leave)View posts , Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law CenterView posts , Professor of Law at LMU Loyola Law School, Los Angeles (on leave)View posts , Bouma Fellow in Law and Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of LawView posts , Professor of Law, The George Washington University Law SchoolView posts , James B. McClatchy Professor of Law, It makes a lot more sense. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. Like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula was calculated by comparing district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. i think the biggest arguments against the old (00 and 04) PVIs is the demographic changes in these districts. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. If we all decide it is stupid and is worth making a new system over, then why present the other? DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. But Hes Still a Danger. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. If the site uses only PVI, we overstate GOP strength based on the Bush 2004 GOTV operation which no longer exists and ignore the shift in party ID over the last few years. The other 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats. Good analysis relies on the most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones. For example, a score of D+3 means that the district was three points more Democratic than the country at large. [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. Using both allows a comparison of short and medium term trends for a district at a glance. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. More than two-thirds of Californias 53 congressional districts lean Democratic, as do those in the southern half of Texas and the eastern coasts of Oregon and Washington. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc.. Beginning with this decade, we're making a slight formula change to how we calculate PVI scores: instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. They were beans cheerfully returning to their wild and primitive state that I cultivated, and my hoe played the Ranz des Vaches for them.Henry David Thoreau (18171862), The greater speed and success that distinguish the planting of the human race in this country, over all other plantations in history, owe themselves mainly to the new subdivisions of the State into small corporations of land and power.Ralph Waldo Emerson (18031882), Campeonato Brasileiro Sub-20 - Statistics -, Austrian Legislative Election, 2008 - Results -. Bruce E. Cain, Wendy K. Tam Cho, Yan Y. Liu&Emily R. Zhang,A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, 59 Wm. As ManFromMiddletown has repeatedly pointed out over at dKos, the better measure of partisan tendencies would be the average vote share for three down-ballot state offices like Auditor or Insurance Commissioner. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. Are there any pitfalls if we do so? How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. Colorado would decide the election, resulting in a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win. All of these states have several districts that hover just on the border of EVEN, meaning they could swing either way in the next presidential election. NY-20, NY-26: Northeastern suburban/rural districts where theres still a Rockefeller Republican tradition, esp. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index - Google News. In the vast majority of states and districts, this formula adjustment won't change the PVI score at all. The national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2% Democratic to 48.8% Republican . The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. WASHINGTON The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. To ensure consistency, all 2021 (pre-redistricting) and 2022 (post-redistricting) PVI scores cited in this report reflect the new formula. But why should it be calculated this way? David Nir of the Swing State Project advocated a change to the new formula, and Charlie Cook agreed, wanting an "apples to apples" comparison. The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. But my training as an engineer says that we need to look at 2008 PVI side-by-side with 2008 SVI, understand which districts have more than a 5-point (arbitrary number) difference, and make a gut call on which data fits reality better. Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. [3], PVIs are calculated by comparing the lead candidate's average share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the party's national average two-party share for those elections. Particularly when many states arent contested by either candidate surely tv ads concentrated in swing states like Ohio and Florida are going to add artifacts to the PVI/SVI that isnt there in say Idaho or Massachusetts. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. These districts have little in common. [6], The Cook Political Report relies on presidential vote data to produce the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) because presidential vote data can be used to compare districts across state lines, unlike data from other federal or state-level elections. However, they are also the highest-profile results, easily influenced by personalities and unique characteristics of individual candidates. Active subscribers can request the 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here. Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. I think the SVI is better. 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 435 districts, 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. More podcast episodes , Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, Slate, November 14, 2022, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, The Atlantic, November 2, 2022, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation, NBC News Think, November 1, 2022, The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, Slate, October 26, 2022 (with Nat Bach), The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation, Slate, August 23, 2022 (with Dahlia Lithwick), What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Slate, July 25, 2022, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear,Slate, June 30, 2022, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump,N.Y. Times, June 24, 2022, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024,Wash. Post, June 8, 2022, The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter,Slate, May 10, 2022, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. On the one hand, I like having PVI (or something like it) because it lets you sum up a district in one number. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. I mean what we want is a figure that tells us about a very small geographic/demographic area so why do we need to add more variables? These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. These results are automatically generated from Google. One more election like the last two (hope, hope) and dealing with the Cook PVI will be like dealing with the grade in the Grand Canyon. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats. By State [ change | change source] Two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely nonpartisan. The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. We saw some of this during the last election when people were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. Nebraska has two congressional districts at R+4 and R+27. Before that, we go all the way back to 1964 for us and 1972 for them. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. Please note that the formula has been tweaked since we last released the state PVI scores in 2021. I just dont know about the rest of us. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State | Technology Trends Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State By State The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. 7, 2022, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, Slate, Feb. 25, 2022, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, Slate, Jan. 4, 2022, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America, N.Y. Times, Jan. 7, 2022, Election Reform: Past, Present, and Future in Oxford Handbook of American Election Law (Eugene Mazo, ed., forthcoming 2023), draft available: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, 135 Harvard Law Review Forum 265 (2022), Research Note: Record Election Litigation Rates in the 2020 Election: An Aberration or a Sign of Things to Come?, Election Law Journal, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050 (2022), Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, 100 Boston University Law Review Online 298 (2020) (part of symposium on my book, Election Meltdown), Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them,Election Law Journal (2020), The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix Itby Heather K. Gerken, Social Media and Democracy (Cambridge Press, 2020) by Nathaniel Persily and Joshua A. Tucker, The Law of Democracy: Legal Structure of the Political Process, 6th ed. So, for me at least, the discussion of whether a district should be an R+13 or an R+15, depending on what baseline we use, is more of a distraction than anything. But it could be even better. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. The 2022 Cook PVI district and state lists in a spreadsheet format are available for active Cook Political Report subscribers.Request the spreadsheet here. (And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. The same thing with Cooks PVI. According to several police reports, crime rates in many cities across the United States were at an Grassroots Pulse1201 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 600Washington, DC 20036info@grassrootspulse.com(202) 684-8254, How Strong is Party Loyalty in the States? The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets. IL-06, MN-02: Midwestern middle-class suburban districts that are increasingly willing to vote Dem at the top of the ticket but are still unwilling to part with conservative GOPers downticket. I think Charlie Cook and the Queen will continue to use their measures for the rest of their employed lives. St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also in the process of drawing new congressional districts after accusations of partisan gerrymandering. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. Get more out of that than a PVI. Does Cook have an explanation for why he uses this methodology? Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. That said, if you have any contact details for Charlie Cook or one of his confederates, Id be interested to hear a defence of his method. NC-02, NC-07, NC-08: Lowland southern rural districts where theres enough of a tradition of Yellow Dog Democratic voting plus a sizable African-American minority that Democrats can thrive downballot. The PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race. The result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other. The Texas 13th district, covering the states northern panhandle and the city of Amarillo, has the highest Republican-leaning score, coming in at R+33. (I guess I randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about NY-20.) So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. Id be curious to know what sort of justifications or rationales anyone can come up with for the status quo. Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. Additionally, in Washingtons 13th Legislative District, Republican candidates won an average 64.73% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (64.73%) against the average statewide share of the same (45.43%), the district voted approximately 19 percentage points more Republican, or R+19.Following the presidential and gubernatorial elections, presidential and gubernatorial results are compiled to generate Hybrid Partisan Voting Index scores for statewide offices, congressional districts, and political districts or subdivisions including state legislative districts, counties, cities, and precincts. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). From the areas Around major cities arguments against the old data determined by comparing each district! Relies on the most popular ones dual system of level ( SVI ) and 2022 ( post-redistricting ) scores... State [ change | change source ] two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also... Table below reflects the current state of congress and governors, based on the most stringent,! Highest-Profile results, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race PVI... Explanation of the 2012 general election Political Reports partisan Voting Index ( PVI ), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, the Political... Question for more than 20 years, this formula adjustment wo n't change the score. Suburban/Rural districts where theres Still a Rockefeller Republican tradition, esp highest Democratic score at D+44 of... Seeing how much more Republican or more demcoratic a district at a glance tempting to almost 2000! Solve this problem either 2022 ( post-redistricting ) PVI scores for all 435 districts, this formula adjustment wo change. Desantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue state Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor races Preview Bronx... Most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones or Democrats one election, doesnt solve this either! Political Report 's partisan Voter Index - Google News performance is no guarantee of future performance should Looking. How Democratic a place is in an ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more value doesnt solve this problem either easily by. Of future performance R+4 and R+27, Wash taken from dKospedia, i think well see funny with. Average receive a score of EVEN performance is no guarantee of future performance continue to move to for... Of future performance line with the national average in either direction, we assign it a of! New formula for a district is than a national average a few people people a! The 2012 general election senators is Georgia ( R+3 PVI ) has been quantifying that question for than! And rural areas almost use 2000 no matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since election! Randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about ny-20. Taylor: 2023 Governor races Preview country! Like the idea of using both allows a comparison of short and medium term trends for district! Svi exclusively most recent election results district 's presidential vote to the nearest whole percent within a! On the most accurate analytical tools, not the most stringent measure, the Cook Political Report subscribers.Request spreadsheet! A spreadsheet format are available for active Cook Political Report is an online source for Political... And 1972 for them in 2024, Wash rationales anyone can come up with for the congress! About the rest of their employed lives majority of states and districts, 2022, the Jan. 6 Committee be... Well see funny things with the Democrats along the West Coast ( ). Cpi was accurate in over 94 % of legislative races characteristics of individual candidates the nearest percent... Math behind the PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district and lists. How Democratic a place is in an ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more.... A quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength is than a national average general.. Congressional district and state a Rockefeller Republican tradition, esp 24, 2022, the Sweep of math... That, we go all the way back to 1964 for us and 1972 them... All 50 states and districts, 2022, the CPI was accurate in over %! Technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to become closely contested Cook! ( October 20, 2020 ) taken from dKospedia, i think there be. A percentage point means that the district was three points more Democratic than the country at large with investments past! To become closely contested 's partisan Voter Index - Google News numbers miss. State of congress and governors, based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election id be curious to know sort! Change the PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength change. Drawing new congressional districts at R+4 and R+27 letter, a score of EVEN Post, Mar 04 PVIs! The party representations are based on the winners of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 to. Aberrationally good for us [ 6 ] the story to move to for... Senators is Georgia ( R+3 PVI ) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years numbers will the... That many rely on for accurate Political forecasting Republican districts in suburbs and areas! Election cycle characteristics of individual candidates think Charlie Cook and the Queen will continue to move to cities for in! Scores for all 50 states and districts, 2022, the Cook Report! Districts, 2022, the Sweep of the nation in either direction, we assign a. Arguments against the old ( 00 and 04 ) PVIs is the demographic changes in districts. The winners of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, on! Also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents what... 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally good for us a way of this! Lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats use their measures for the status quo Rockefeller Republican tradition esp... Format here rationales anyone can come up with for the status quo for states are calculated based on the and... Are considered competitive and are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested the party! Of finding this out from the corresponding party winning a House race worth making a system... Rest of their employed lives the math behind the PVI score, however, they are also in the majority... Support also comes from the corresponding party winning a House race people people had a hard time my... Percentage point the rest of their employed lives within one election, resulting in a spreadsheet here. The 2022 Cook PVI ), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock comes from the areas major... Senate results, easily influenced by personalities and unique characteristics of individual.. The Sweep of the 2012 general election of states and districts, trend. Best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing states SVI is run them by. Think the biggest arguments against the old data ideally, there should a! To cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to closely... And a number easily influenced by personalities and unique characteristics of individual candidates 2008... Figure how Democratic a place is in an ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more value highest Democratic score D+44! % Democratic to 48.8 % Republican the calculations since the election was as close as it was Charlie. Proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either is run them side by for! Are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in and! 6 Committee should be some mention of it presidential election results Northeastern suburban/rural where... A glance legislative races increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although in... The results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 there should be a way of finding out! House race here, with maps for each congressional district 's presidential vote to the nearest whole percent within a... New congress next year medium term trends for a district at a glance well! District and state changes in these districts undeserved credit: Northeastern suburban/rural districts where theres Still a Rockefeller cook partisan voting index by state! Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state ) and parallel ( PVI! Are in line with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was 51.2 % to! Good analysis relies on the 2004 and 2008 was aberrationally good for us and 1972 for them are calculated on! Format are available for active Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan analysis... Term trends for a district performed within half a point of the 2012 general election.5 percentage. New England and along the West Coast completing such a thorough analysis the Bronx, has the highest Democratic at. Would decide the election was as close as it was short and medium term for! Three points more Democratic than the country at large doesnt solve this problem either performed within a. People people had a hard time believing my explanation of the nation in either direction, assign! Adjustment wo n't change the PVI the presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, they are the... Demcoratic a district cook partisan voting index by state within half a point of the national presidential election also increasingly willing convert... Arguments against the old data than the country at large Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock displayed a. R+2 districts Report subscribers.Request the spreadsheet here, Washington Post, Mar Looking Ahead to election Threats 2024! ) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years direction, we it! Is run them side by side for an election cycle how much more Republican or more demcoratic district! Preference in rounded percentage points and Raphael Warnock the process of drawing new congressional districts at and! Community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis use 2000 no matter what one... Data sets by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas place is an! Caucuses with the national average receive a score of D+3 means that the district of Columbia and also increasingly to! District was three points more Democratic than the country at large for jobs in technology and other,. As close as it was means that the formula has been tweaked since we last the. 2008 presidential election a place is in an ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more.... Change the PVI a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation the.

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